From Cyclical Reacceleration to Geopolitical Regime Shift

From Cyclical Reacceleration to Geopolitical Regime Shift

Our Q2 2026 outlook reflects a shift from cyclical reacceleration to a more fragile macro regime shaped by…

13 mins
From Policy Volatility and Market Resilience in 2025 to a Transition Year in 2026

From Policy Volatility and Market Resilience in 2025 to a Transition Year in 2026

2025 was a year defined less by a single macro outcome and more by the repricing of policy…

17 mins

At an Inflection Point

The global economy approaches year-end 2025 caught between two competing forces: the push of policy support and the…

11 mins
From Noise to Signal: Positioning Beyond the Narrative Regime

From Noise to Signal: Positioning Beyond the Narrative Regime

We expect markets to enter a new phase. So far in 2025, policy shocks, geopolitical risk, and high…

10 mins

Tariff Tumult: Alpha Through Agility

The U.S. tariff overhaul marks a historic policy rupture with profound implications for global markets and macroeconomic stability—ushering…

10 mins
The Tariff Domino Effect on Global Markets - Graham Capital Management

The Tariff Domino Effect on Global Markets

The global macroeconomic landscape is undergoing significant changes, with potential policy shifts such as broad tariff impositions under…

7 mins

A FRAGILE BALANCE Building Resilience in a Turbulent Geopolitical and Economic Landscape

As uncertainty reigns in today's macroeconomic environment, investors must balance caution with opportunity. August’s Volatility Shock August began…

10 mins
Despite a few setbacks on the inflation front, the US economy continues to march along a path of benign conditions for risk assets and investment styles that typically flourish in low-vol, risk-on environments. However, navigating these seemingly favorable conditions requires a nuanced understanding of both the macroeconomic landscape and potential tail risks.

Challenges and Opportunities for Risk Assets

Despite a few setbacks on the inflation front, the US economy continues to march along a path of…

7 mins

2024 Macro Outlook

Over the past few years, we've experienced an exceptionally intriguing period in the market landscape. Shocks like the…

8 mins

Term Premium’s Impact on Bond Market Swings

Interest rate markets have been roiled by massive shocks during the last two years, starting with the significant…

9 mins